Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 99 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AF 99 · IAH → CDG

departs 4:11 PM CT · arrives 7:05 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDG?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into CDG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 99 · IAH → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?