Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AM 642 · MEX → LAX

departs 1:34 PM CST · arrives 4:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 642 · MEX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?