Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AM 643 · LAX → MEX

departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 11:16 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into MEX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 643 · LAX → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?