Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1001 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1001 · ITO → HNL

departs 6:00 AM HT · arrives 6:54 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ITO are usually not late

Weather at each end

ITO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1001 · ITO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?