Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1102 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1102 · HNL → ITO

departs 4:56 PM HT · arrives 6:04 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ITO that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Arrivals into ITO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ITO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1102 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?