Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1120 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

departs 5:02 PM HT · arrives 5:55 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIH

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,033 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?