Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1140 · OGG → KOA

departs 2:03 PM HT · arrives 2:39 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1140 · OGG → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?