Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1352 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1352 · LAX → SJO

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 7:24 PM CST

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1352 · LAX → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?