Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1400 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1400 · SFO → LAS

departs 5:55 PM PT · arrives 7:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1400 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?