Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1455 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1455 · PDX → ANC

departs 5:47 PM PT · arrives 8:40 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1455 · PDX → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?