Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 1478 · ORD → SAN

departs 7:47 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1478 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?