AS 1703 · SEA → SNA

took off 7:34 PM PT · expected to land 9:54 PM PT (scheduled 7:42 PM PT → 10:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.41 in

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1703 · SEA → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?