Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2611 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 6:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?