Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 271 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 271 · HNL → ONT

departs 12:59 PM HT · arrives 9:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 271 · HNL → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?