Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 307 · ANC → ADQ

departs 6:26 PM AKT · arrives 7:37 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ADQ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADQ?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ADQ that day

↓ ADQ usually runs smoothly

↓ 6pm departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

ADQ (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 307 · ANC → ADQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADQ?