Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 326 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 326 · TPA → SEA

departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 326 · TPA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?