Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 350 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 350 · SMF → SAN

departs 5:17 PM PT · arrives 6:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 350 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?