Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 363 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 363 · RNO → PDX

departs 8:01 AM PT · arrives 9:42 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from RNO are often late

↑ RNO is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 363 · RNO → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?