Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 404 · KOA → SFO

departs 3:40 PM HT · arrives 11:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 404 · KOA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?