Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 44 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 44 · ANC → LAX

departs 11:19 PM AKT · arrives 5:13 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 44 · ANC → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?