Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 453 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 453 · SAN → SFO

departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 8:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 453 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?