Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 474 · RDU → SAN

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 474 · RDU → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?