Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 512 · PHX → PDX

departs 8:52 PM MT · arrives 11:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.82 in

PDX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 512 · PHX → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?