Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 588 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 588 · SNA → PDX

departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 4:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 588 · SNA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?