Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

departs 3:12 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 59% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?