Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 646 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 646 · SMF → SEA

departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 8:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 646 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?