Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 69 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 69 · SEA → KTN

departs 6:38 PM PT · arrives 7:43 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KTN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KTN (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 69 · SEA → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?