Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7015 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 7015 · BRW → ANC

departs 10:07 AM AKT · arrives 12:13 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BRW that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ BRW usually runs smoothly

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BRW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts38 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7015 · BRW → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?