Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7015 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 7015 · SCC → BRW

departs 8:18 AM AKT · arrives 9:24 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at BRW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BRW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BRW

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SCC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into BRW at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from SCC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SCC (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BRW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7015 · SCC → BRW

Odds over time

How late will it get to BRW?