Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 706 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 706 · SEA → OAK

departs 8:47 PM PT · arrives 10:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 706 · SEA → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?