Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 711 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 711 · SEA → ANC

departs 8:51 PM PT · arrives 11:38 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 711 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?