Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 723 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 723 · PDX → PHX

departs 5:51 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 723 · PDX → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?