Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 738 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 738 · LAS → SEA

departs 3:53 PM PT · arrives 6:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 738 · LAS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?