Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 784 · PDX → ATL

departs 7:30 AM PT · arrives 3:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 784 · PDX → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?