Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 805 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 805 · LAS → HNL

departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 9:39 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 805 · LAS → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?