Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 81 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 81 · ANC → FAI

departs 6:34 PM AKT · arrives 7:47 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 6pm departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.60 in

FAI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 81 · ANC → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?