Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 863 · HNL → HND

departs 1:53 PM HT · arrives 5:04 PM JST

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at HND more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HND?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HND

↓ HND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HND (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 863 · HNL → HND

Odds over time

How late will it get to HND?