Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

departs 12:25 PM HT · arrives 8:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?