Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 876 · HNL → LAS

departs 1:25 PM HT · arrives 10:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 876 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?