Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 9719 · RNO → SJC

departs 4:02 PM PT · arrives 5:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from RNO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9719 · RNO → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?