Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9728 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 9728 · HNL → KOA

departs 7:31 PM HT · arrives 8:08 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 7pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,267 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9728 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?