Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 972 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 972 · OGG → LGB

departs 11:22 AM HT · arrives 7:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 972 · OGG → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?