Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 9803 · LAX → SBA

departs 8:15 PM PT · arrives 8:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9803 · LAX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?