Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AV 195 · TPA → BOG

departs 3:43 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 195 · TPA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?