Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ITA AIRWAYS · FLIGHT AZ 641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AZ 641 · SFO → FCO

departs 4:17 PM PT · arrives 11:50 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at FCO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FCO?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ AZ's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AZ 641 · SFO → FCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCO?