Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 1186 · JFK → ROC
departs 10:29 PM ET · arrives 12:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 38%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 43%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.