Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 136 · PHX → JFK
departs 1:31 PM MT · arrives 9:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 44%
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.