Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 1486 · RDU → JFK
departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 8:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 44%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 46%
Sun 11/1 60%
Mon 11/2 47%
Tue 11/3 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.