Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 163
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 163 · JFK → SRQ
departs 3:37 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 41%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SRQ that day
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.