Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 474 · AUA → BOS
departs 4:55 PM AST · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
BOS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.